Fire Weather and Fire Danger Forecasts

Weather forecasts at short to extended time ranges and global to regional space scales can be utilized for wildland fire management, e.g. the recent proposal by the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been successfully used for estimating fire danger. A recent (not yet published, 1997) report of the IDNDR (IDNDR 1997) gives an overview on a series of candidate systems for early warning of fire precursors which should investigated by Indonesian scientists.

The proposed Canadian project "Fire Danger Rating System for Indonesia : An Adaptation of the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction System" will be an important contribution towards improving the basic knowledge on the weather-fuel-fire/fire behaviour relationships.

The fire danger rating systems which are already in use in some parts of Indonesia (IFFM-GTZ), however, may be more readily available to produce a regional early warning system within a relatively short time period of a few months. The ministry of Environment of Singapore has indicated interest to test the system at ASEAN level.

The ASEAN Fire Weather Information System (ASFWIS) is a co-operation between ASEAN and the Canadian Forest Service. It provides maps describing the current fire weather situation in South East Asia. This system is based upon the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) (for further information to the CFFDRS refers to ASFWIS). Studies have shown that the CFFDRS is applicable outside of Canada. Currently it is also used in a modified form in New Zealand. In New Zealand the Fire Weather Indices Fine Fuel

Moisture Code (FFMC) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI) represent the fire danger in the scrublands. The Duff Moisture Code (DMC) is also applicable in South East Asia, because it potentially describes the moisture state of the upper peat layers in peat and peat swamp forests. All three parameters may serve as a suitable indicator of forest fire danger in South East Asia.

CASE STUDIES

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