The Green Revolution that was launched in 1943 in Mexico was a particular boon to developing countries because of the increases it afforded in agricultural production. Sixty-four years later, the Green Revolution technologies are still going strong in terms of agricultural production, but we are discovering that there was a price to pay in terms of, among other things, environmental degradation, erosion, soil degradation, water depletion and contamination, and a loss of biodiversity.

This research was undertaken as a piece of speculation in the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, a center of the RAND Corporation. Funding came from the endowment for the center. This paper is geared toward researchers interested in the longer-range future of agriculture and may also engage those interested in the longer-range future of the Earth.

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