Bioenergy Production and Fuels Imports Reduction

As show in Table 6, the production of ethanol reaches the targets provided for the years 2010, 2020, and 2030. In relative terms, the production increases at a faster pace between 2010 and 2020 than between 2020 and 2030. Between 2010 and 2020, production increases by threefold. Between 2020 and 2030, the production doubles. Thus, in absolute terms, the increase between 2020 and 2030 is one and a half times the increase compared with the 2010 to 2020 period. These two issues will be of special interest in some of the sensitivity analysis that will be described later in this section.

Table 6. Projected Bioenergy Production Under the ETH60 Scenario.

Projected for the Year of:

Table 6. Projected Bioenergy Production Under the ETH60 Scenario.

Projected for the Year of:

Fuel Type

Units

2007

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Ethanol

Bil. Gallons

7.0

10.0

20.25

30.11

45.20

60.30

Biodiesel

Bil. Gallons

0.37

0.72

1.10

1.25

1.41

1.60

Total Energy

Quads

0.64

0.94

1.85

2.71

4.00

5.31

The original target for biodiesel was to reach a billion gallons by the year 2012, which is accomplished (although the data presented in the referenced table does not include that particular year). It is important to mention that by the year 2030 the production of biodiesel continues to increase to 1.6 billion gallons.

In terms of savings in the consumption of gasoline, the targets of the ETH60 scenario are extraordinary. As indicated in Table 7, the 60 billion gallons of ethanol in 2030 generate a savings of 40.9 billion gallons of gross gasoline equivalent or a displacement of 21.7 percent of the estimated gasoline consumed in the country in 2030. That gasoline would be the equivalent to 0.88 billion barrels of oil, which if imported at $60 a barrel, would amount to $52.51 billion for the year. The same indicators for the entire period through 2030 indicate that 490.4 billion gallons of gasoline would be displaced or the equivalent of 10.48 billion barrels of oil. This implies a potential savings of $629 billion dollars in imports— a positive contribution to the U.S. balance of trade and domestic economy.

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