Corn Utilization

The changes in the utilization of corn grain are show in Table 15. In the ETH60 scenario the participation of energy in the utilization of corn reaches is the highest level in 2015 at 36 percent. This is almost 50 percent above the baseline utilization. From that point forward, as cellulose-to-ethanol becomes available in 2012, the relative participation of energy demand in the use of corn decreases to 31.8 percent by 2030. Compared with the ETH60CACD scenario, where the introduction of cellulose-to-ethanol is delayed to 2015, and the use of corn is adjusted as cellulose ethanol becomes available, the use of corn for energy reaches its maximum in 2015 at 44.2 percent of total use. Similar to the ETH60 scenario, the relative participation diminishes as cellulose becomes more available, and by 2030 the relative use of corn for energy is 21.1 percent.

Table 14. Change in Livestock Sector Costs and Returns Under the ETH60 CACD

Scenario.

Table 14. Change in Livestock Sector Costs and Returns Under the ETH60 CACD

Scenario.

2008

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Million Dollars

Cattle:

Expenses

51

53

-14

-303

-359

-281

Cash Receipts

358

638

3167

859

213

432

Net Returns

306

585

3181

1161

571

713

Percent Change Net Returns

3.4%

7.1%

38.0%

10.9%

5.4%

6.8%

Hogs:

Expenses

285

608

2381

-257

-521

117

Cash Receipts

9

87

848

112

-81

-30

Net Returns

-276

-522

-1532

369

439

-146

Percent Change Net Returns

-13.6%

-32.3%

-84.9%

18.4%

20.1%

-6.0%

Chickens:

Expenses

599

1192

4917

227

-248

612

Cash Receipts

22

113

1067

393

204

198

Net Returns

-577

-1079

-3850

166

452

-414

Percent Change Net Returns

-8.3%

-15.5%

-47.7%

2.0%

5.4%

-4.9%

Table 15. Corn Utilization for Selected Scenarios and Years.

USDAExt

ETH60

ETH60CACD

2007

2015

2030

2007

2015

2030

2007

2015

2030

Million Bushels

Feed

5,850

5,875

5,932

5,654

5,107

5,191

5,654

4,172

5,804

51.2%

46.4%

41.0%

48.8%

39.3%

35.2%

48.8%

31.9%

41.4%

Food, Seed, &

Industrial Use

1,405

1,490

2,590

1,405

1,490

2,591

1,405

2,443

2,590

12.3%

11.8%

17.9%

12.1%

11.5%

17.6%

12.1%

18.7%

18.5%

Energy

2,150

2,915

2,915

2,591

4,696

4,696

2,591

5,773

2,966

18.8%

23.0%

20.2%

22.3%

36.2%

31.8%

22.3%

44.2%

21.1%

Exports

2,025

2,375

3,018

1,943

1,692

2,269

1,943

672

2,670

17.7%

18.8%

20.9%

16.8%

13.0%

15.4%

16.8%

5.1%

19.0%

Total Use

11,430

12,655

14,455

11,593

12,985

14,747

11,593

13,060

14,030

An important element of the use of corn grain for ethanol is the co-production of dry distillers grains, which have a high feed value for the livestock sector. In Table 16, the estimates for the production of DDG's and the corresponding corn equivalent are presented. These data show that about 30 percent of the corn use for energy returns to the livestock industry, contributing in this way to reduce the pressure on corn prices and overall increase in feed costs.

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