Figure 10 Ethanol Quantities from Selected Feedstock Under the ETH60 Scenario

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The lack of growth in corn grain ethanol after 2012 is due to the assumed introduction of cellulose-to-ethanol conversion technology, which would eventually become the dominant technology due to its lower cost of production. Hence, from 2012 the importance of cellulose at feedstock for ethanol is increasing. Specifically, for the first few years the utilization of wood residues would be the most important cellulose feedstock. As dedicated energy crops come into commercial production, they would become the dominant feedstocks.

Regarding biodiesel, there are two major categories of feedstock, soybeans and residues. The residues include yellow grease and tallow from animal rendering. In this analysis the objective was to reach 1 billion gallons of biodiesel by 2012. Figure 11 depicts the path to achieve the goal and the feedstock utilization between soybeans and residues.

Sensitivity analysis was used to consider an alternative target of 2 billion gallons of biodiesel, but given the current oil crop soybeans, the price impact to reach the target was above $8 per bushel, which is unreasonably high. Additional biofuels crop mix between ethanol and biodiesel could have been considered, but for all practical purposes, the results would have meant pressure on the same cropland, and the results would be similar.

There are two basic assumptions regarding the feedstock use for ethanol. The first keeps corn-to-ethanol conversion infrastructure in production by allowing corn grain for ethanol to increase but not to the decrease. Second, cellulose-to-ethanol technology becomes ready for commercial expansion by 2012. These two assumptions were relaxed to observe their potential impact.

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

■ Corn Grain >Wood Residues ■ Wheat Straw aCorn Stover ■ Ded. Energy Crop

Billion Gallons 1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027

■ Soybeans" Grease&Tallow

Figure 11. Biodiesel from Selected Feedstock Under the ETH60 Scenario.

There are two basic assumptions regarding the feedstock use for ethanol. The first keeps corn-to-ethanol conversion infrastructure in production by allowing corn grain for ethanol to increase, but not to the decrease. Second, cellulose-to-ethanol technology becomes ready for commercial expansion by 2012. These two assumptions were relaxed to observe their potential impact.

Under the ETH60CA Scenario, the first assumption is relaxed and corn grain to ethanol shrinks as more ethanol from cellulose becomes available. The projected feedstock sources for ethanol under the ETH60CA Scenario are represented by Figure 12. As can be noted from the figure, use of corn reaches a peak in 2012 when the cellulose to ethanol industry is getting started and then declines to less than 8 billion gallons by 2030. This suggests that excess production capacity will appear in 2013, and corn grain ethanol plants will either need to increasingly reconvert to cellulose or shut down. The use of corn grain does not reach zero, because some older plants would remain active as long as they were able to cover less than full costs, since the plants would be totally depreciated. In the nearer term, the cellulose feedstock which replace corn grain are corn stover and wheat straw. In the longer term, dedicated energy crops become the dominant feedstocks.

2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027

■ Soybeans" Grease&Tallow

Figure 11. Biodiesel from Selected Feedstock Under the ETH60 Scenario.

Billion Gallons 60

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Corn Grain Wood Residues ■ Wheat Straw Corn Stover Ded. Energy Crop

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