Figure 12 Ethanol from Selected Feedstock Under the ETH60CA Scenario

Under the ETH60CACD Scenario, the second assumption retained, but the introduction of cellulose-to-ethanol production is delayed until 2015 rather than 2012. The ethanol from the specified feedstock under this scenario is shown in Figure 13. The first observation is that the use of corn for ethanol will not peak until 2015, and it will peak close to 18 billion gallons of ethanol. After the peak year, there will be a significant reduction in the use of grain corn for ethanol in response to the entrance of the cellulose-to-ethanol technology. Notably, the buildup in production capacity that was necessary to take the corn to ethanol industry to 18 billion gallons in 2015 results in excess capacity. Consequently, the cost of transition from corn grain to cellulose ethanol would become costlier in terms of conversion costs creating the potential necessity for a partial corn grain-to-ethanol industry bailout. The price impacts are analyzed later on in this document.

In this situation, corn stover, and to a lesser degree wheat straw, would become the significant feedstocks. Under this scenario, by the year 2030, dedicated energy crops, i.e. switchgrass, are the dominant feedstock. The contribution of corn residues is much more significant than under the other two previous scenarios.

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