Summary of Key Findings

Some of the key findings revolving around attaining a 60 billion gallon ethanol goal and a 1.6 billion gallon biodiesel goal by the are presented in Table 20.

Table 20. Summary of Key Results

Key Variables

Summary of Results

Bioenergy Production and Fuels Imports Reduction

The 60 billion gallon goal is attainable by 2030. Reaching the goal by 2030 would result in a cumulative displacement of 490.4 billion gallons of gasoline (the equivalent of 10.48 billion barrels of oil). A biodiesel goal of 1.6 billion gallons by 2030 is also attainable.

Feedstock Utilization

Prior to 2012, corn grain will be the primary feedstock for ethanol. As cellulosic to ethanol is commercialized, dedicated energy crops will become the dominant feedstock. Soybeans serve as the primary feedstock for biodiesel (1 billion gallons) along with tallow and yellow grease (.6 billion gallons)

Changes in Land Use

Dedicated energy crops use 34.4 million acres by 2030. Acreage is converted from soybean production and pastureland.

Price Impacts

Corn price increases by $.60 per bushel above the baseline to $3.03 per bushel in 2030. Delaying cellulosic to ethanol to 2015 from 2012 would result in a sharp increase in corn price ($1.95 per bushel above the baseline). Soybean prices increase to $6.76 in 2030 ($1.23 per bushel above baseline).

Table 20. Continued

Key Variables

Summary of Results

Biofuels Cost

Average ethanol costs decline over the period from $1.45 per gallon in 2007 to $1.23 in 2030. Biodiesel from soybeans is $4.22 per gallon in 2007 and increases to $4.91 per gallon in 2030, reflecting the increase in feedstock prices. Yellow grease costs are considerably lower (about $1.77 per gallon).

Exports

Soybean exports decline significantly compared with the baseline (1.1 billion bushels in the baseline compared with .6 billion bushels) in the year 2030. The value of exports declines by $3.4 billion in the year 2030. The accumulated declined in exports for the period 2006-2030 amounts to $ 43.5 billion dollars.

Regional Impacts: Feedstock and Net Returns

A significant concentration of the cellulosic feedstock production occurs in the Southeast and Southern regions of the country first, and then moves towards the Midwest and Northern Plains. The largest availability of wood and forest residues would be located west of the Rocky Mountains, in the Southeast, and in New England. Gains in agricultural income are projected to occur across the whole nation.

Livestock Sector

An 8 percent gain in total net returns accrues to the cattle industry in the year 2030. Other livestock impacts are difficult to assess due to the level of vertical integration.

Corn Utilization

By 2030, corn used in feed decreases 13.6 percent from current levels reflecting increased production of DDG's. Corn utilized in energy production increases from 2.6 billion bushels in 2007 to 4.7 billion bushels in 2015.

Government Payments and Net Farm Income

A cumulative increase in net farm income over the 2007-2030 period of $210 billion is projected. Cumulative savings in government payments of $8.6 billion are projected through the year 2030.

Impacts on the Nation's Economy

By 2030, a total of $110 billion annually is directly generated and the total impact to the nation's economy is estimated at $368 billion per year. An estimated 2.4 million jobs are created. This includes the impacts from feedstock production ($37.5 billion annually in 2030) and conversion ($330.8 billion annually in 2030).

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