Conclusions

Modern anthropogenic global warming, which has already begun to manifest itself in many of the earth's regions, is the main factor for the occurrence of droughts causing low crop yields in some countries. In the past few decades we observed uniformity in the occurrence of droughts and crop productivity in major wheat-producing regions of the world. In general, in the regions of the moderate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a global warming exceeding 1°C will be favorable for obtaining higher and stable agricultural production. This should promote the planting of more productive thermophilic crops in the northern areas and more hydrophilic cultivars in current arid zones.

Table 34.1 Changes in climatic normals (1961-90) of wheat yield and its annual variability (%) according to paleoclimatic scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes caused by global warming in 2010 and 2050

2010

2050

Table 34.1 Changes in climatic normals (1961-90) of wheat yield and its annual variability (%) according to paleoclimatic scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes caused by global warming in 2010 and 2050

2010

2050

Region

Productivity

Variability

Productivity

Variabili

United States

North Dakota

-1

+20

+35

-20

South Dakota

-4

+22

+31

-19

Nebraska

-5

+18

+29

-24

Colorado

0

+3

+25

-22

Kansas

0

+8

+24

-15

Oklahoma

+4

+1

+21

-11

Minnesota

0

+14

+32

-16

Iowa

-1

+16

+27

-15

Missouri

+1

+8

+19

-12

Illinois

0

+10

+24

-13

Michigan

+2

+11

+23

-9

Ohio

+1

+8

+21

-8

Russia

St. Petersburg

+19

0

+36

-20

Vorovezh

+7

+5

+26

-21

Toula

+8

+5

+29

-17

Lipetsk

+7

+4

+31

-19

Belgorod

+8

+4

+31

-18

Krasnodar

+17

-17

+31

-31

Volgograd

+12

-18

+52

-35

N. Novgorod

+8

-8

+35

-24

Tatarstan

+8

-7

+38

-25

Orenburg

+17

-18

+58

-37

Chelyabinsk

+13

-13

+42

-35

Altay

+14

-19

+44

-28

Europe

Poland

+14

+4

+35

-22

Spain

+6

-2

+22

-25

France

+9

-3

+28

-12

Germany

+7

+2

+23

-17

Italy

+4

-5

+16

-20

Romania

+10

-5

+31

-23

Bulgaria

+12

-8

+28

-20

United Kingdom

+17

0

+21

-5

Hungary

+3

-3

+16

-20

Ukraine

+5

-5

+20

-24

Baltic Rep.

+16

+3

+32

-24

Denmark

+16

+3

+26

-11

Considering the perspective of future research in this field, it is necessary to notice that the weakest and the most complex component of such research is the development of the reliable forecasts of regional climate changes. Although recent research work on predicting climate change has made great advances at the global scale, predictions of regional climate change are still unreliable. Until there are considerable improvements in the reliability of predictions of regional climate change, we cannot expect to see much progress in forecasting agroclimatology and long-term drought prediction.

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