Wheat Yield Variation and Prediction in Some Countries

Crop prediction in some countries can be studied in relation to recorded climatic change in recent years using prediction models. Wheat yield data were collected from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for 55 countries for the last 40 years. Analysis of the long-term changes in wheat yields is interesting for three reasons. First, wheat is the most widely cultivated crop in many countries. Second, the areas of wheat cultivation are often more affected by drought than other main crops. Third, the archive of data on wheat production is the largest and most reliable. We selected relatively small regions or countries because the yields in large territories experience a greater spatial variability. Unfortunately, full information about the crop yields for smaller and climatically homogeneous areas is often not available.

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