In general, the techniques to predict drought include statistical regression, time series, stochastic (or probabilistic), and, lately, pattern recognition techniques. All of these techniques require that a quantitative variable be identified to define drought, with which to begin the process of prediction. In the case of agricultural drought, such a variable can be the yield (production per unit area) of the major crop in a region (Kumar, 1998; Boken, 2000). The crop yield in a year can be compared with its long-term average, and drought intensity can be classified as nil, mild, moderate, severe, or disastrous, based on the difference between the current yield and the average yield.
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