The Agridema Pilot Assessments Results

According to the AGRIDEMA goals, the Pilot assessments should comprise the two following tasks:

1. Downscaling the provided GCM-outputs and/or seasonal-forecasts.

2. Simulating impacts (such as crop growth and yield, drought stress level etc.) under the locally-obtained climate scenarios, evaluating several management options, which might mitigate the probable climate impact.

Scientific quality of the assessments is quite variable, which can be expected from the wide irregularity of AGRIDEMA applicants. Furthermore, the applicability of the obtained results varies among the assessments as well. Generally, those assessments conducted by researchers located in agricultural stations are closer to stakeholder goals, but unclear regarding climate analysis. Objectives were too ambitious sometimes and could not be fulfilled with a simple application. Moreover, the use of the climate and crop modelling tools shown in the AGRIDEMA courses was mainly related to the user' previous experience and not to the tool reliability for the expected goal. Comparisons between modelling tools were not conducted in most of the cases. In spite of all the above, the AGRIDEMA results constitutes perhaps the most important collection of independent climate-change agricultural assessments that have been made in Europe.

The following table shows the climate and crop-growth simulation tools that have been used in the AGRIDEMA pilot assessments. The downscaling method is clearly identified in all the reports. However, the GCM data source is not always pointed out. In some cases, the assessment was very simple due to the lack of data or relevant knowledge on the crop model.

Table 4: Climate and crop-growth tools used in the AGRIDEMA Pilot assessments

Assessment Conductor

Institution

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